Welp, it’s not as though Mother Nature failed to give us the proper clues about what’s to come this summer. However, we all hoped we just read too much into the signs. As it turns out, this hurricane season looks just as frightening as last year’s.
Fairfield Daily Voice reports that there’s a 75-percent chance that the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season will be pretty terrible. Well, the NOAA’s exact wording was, “near- or above-normal.”
But, considering the craziness of 4 nor’easters in a row and 4 tornadoes in CT… wait.
Does this mean we’ll have to deal with 4 awful hurricanes, too?
When will the madness end?
Currently, the chance of a severe or “above-normal” season rests comfortably at 35 percent. Meanwhile, there’s a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season. And, the statistic we all hope comes true, a 25 percent chance of a below-normal season.
Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross believes these are the most accurate predictions the NOAA can offer:
“With the advances made in hardware and computing over the course of the last year, the ability of NOAA scientists to both predict the path of storms and warn Americans who may find themselves in harm’s way is unprecedented. The devastating hurricane season of 2017 demonstrated the necessity for prompt and accurate hurricane forecasts.”
As for more concrete statistics, we stand roughly at 70 percent of watching 10 to 16 named storms develop. Storms must sustain winds up to 39mph to earn a name tag from the NOAA.
Of that number, the NOAA predicts about 5 to 9 of those storms will become hurricanes. A storm must develop winds 74mph or stronger to reach hurricane status.
Also, NOAA says of those hurricanes, 1 to 4 will become major hurricanes (category 3 or higher.) A hurricane needs to sustain winds of 111 mph or higher to reach category 3 and beyond.
So, why do forecasters believe this hurricane season could rival last years? Well, that’s because of a possibility of a weaker El Nino. Which, quite honestly, isn’t all that bad. If this year warned of a stronger El Nino, we’d see an even grimmer forecast.
So, with slightly warmer waters, along with near-average temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, it’ll act as a boost for storm creation.
That said, all of this is still yet to be set in stone as NOAA will issue one final hurricane season outlook in August. You know, right before the season really takes off.
Which means a lot of what I just said might change and, quite honestly, let’s hope that if it does, it’s because hurricane season will be a dud.
I think we all could use a break.